Polybius

0x59a75d...ba9f30

Smart Score

Win Rate

66.0%

Total P&L

+$250.4K

Trade Count

998

Sharpe Ratio

0.14

Sortino Ratio

0.38

Max Drawdown

119.5%

ROI

147.7%

Profit Factor

36.98

Kelly Fraction

0.642

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

038.1/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	SELL	1.0¢	100	Mar 4
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY	27.8¢	270.04	Feb 16
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY	27.8¢	35	Feb 16
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY	27.8¢	9.695	Feb 16
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY	27.8¢	44	Feb 16
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY	27.8¢	8.31	Feb 16
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY	27.8¢	8.31	Feb 16
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY	27.8¢	6.925	Feb 16
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY	27.8¢	18	Feb 16
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY	27.8¢	12.465	Feb 16
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY	27.8¢	9.695	Feb 16
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY	27.8¢	30	Feb 16
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY	27.8¢	9.695	Feb 16
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY	27.8¢	400	Feb 16
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY	27.8¢	400	Feb 16
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY	27.8¢	128	Feb 16
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY	27.8¢	6.925	Feb 16
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY	27.8¢	20	Feb 16
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY	27.8¢	5	Feb 16
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY	27.8¢	2	Feb 16

Analytics

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Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

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Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing38.1

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)2.10

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)34.7%

Win Consistency62.3%

Profit Factor0.99

Drawdown Resilience0.80

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.80

Weekly Sharpe est.0.61

Trading Activity998 trades · 49 active days

P&L Calendar

$59,27419d profit30d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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