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PositiveOutlook

0xa67b46...dac941
Smart Score
53
Win Rate
65.9%
Total P&L
+$9.2K
Trade Count
569
Sharpe Ratio
1.33
Sortino Ratio
23.22
Max Drawdown
1094.2%
ROI
11.3%
Profit Factor
9.05
Kelly Fraction
0.586
R² (Curve Fit)
—
Smart Score
053.3/100100

Recent Trades

MarketSidePriceSizeTime
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7?BUY88.0¢100Mar 5
Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 5?BUY92.0¢16.4Mar 5
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?BUY68.0¢7.35Mar 5
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?BUY68.0¢156.25Mar 5
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?BUY68.0¢60Mar 5
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?BUY68.0¢28.567Mar 5
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 7?SELL22.0¢73.49Mar 5
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?BUY68.0¢1.44Mar 5
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?BUY68.0¢62.5Mar 5
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?BUY68.0¢104.471Mar 5
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?BUY68.0¢24.59Mar 5
Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?BUY85.0¢347.86Mar 5
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 7?SELL22.0¢124Mar 5
Heat vs. HornetsBUY68.1¢1,027.373Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 14?SELL25.0¢3,094.66Mar 5
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?SELL81.0¢153.9Mar 4
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?SELL81.0¢70.08Mar 4
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?SELL81.0¢254.02Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?BUY31.0¢68.03Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?BUY32.0¢670.33Mar 4

Analytics

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Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

100%75%50%25%11%< 10%14%10–20%7%20–30%17%30–50%12%50–70%10%70–80%14%80–90%15%> 90%
← Long ShotsSafe Bets →
Quantitative Edge Profile
Developing53.3

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)2.93
Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)48.5%
Win Consistency51.0%
Profit Factor1.39
Drawdown Resilience1.12
Conviction Sizing (Kelly)1.12
Weekly Sharpe est.0.85
Trading Activity569 trades · 16 active days
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLessMore
P&L Calendar
$10,1733d profit13d loss
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLossProfit

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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