PredictionBuffet

0x1e1cee...7c5ee1

Smart Score

Win Rate

91.1%

Total P&L

+$27.5K

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

1.24

Sortino Ratio

22.88

Max Drawdown

100.0%

ROI

55.0%

Profit Factor

0.68

Kelly Fraction

0.000

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

034.7/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 3?	BUY	99.6¢	3.343	Mar 2
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on March 3?	BUY	99.7¢	5.326	Mar 2
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 3?	BUY	99.1¢	4.157	Mar 2
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 3?	BUY	99.8¢	5.12	Mar 2
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3?	BUY	99.7¢	5.125	Mar 2
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?	BUY	99.5¢	2.462	Mar 2
Will Trump meet with Dario Amodei in March 2026?	SELL	93.0¢	4,005	Mar 2
Will Trump meet with Dario Amodei in March 2026?	BUY	11.0¢	4,005	Mar 2
Will Meta (META) finish week of March 2 above $650?	SELL	73.0¢	13,018	Mar 2
Will Meta (META) finish week of March 2 above $650?	BUY	13.0¢	13,018	Mar 2
Will Trump meet with King of Morocco Mohammed VI in March 2026?	SELL	87.0¢	2,035	Mar 2
Will Trump meet with King of Morocco Mohammed VI in March 2026?	BUY	7.0¢	1,852	Mar 2
Will Trump meet with King of Morocco Mohammed VI in March 2026?	BUY	10.0¢	183	Mar 2
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in March?	SELL	85.0¢	206	Mar 2
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in March?	BUY	16.0¢	206	Mar 2
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 February 23-March 1?	BUY	99.9¢	33.063	Mar 1
Will Z.ai have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?	BUY	99.6¢	1.426	Feb 9
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?	BUY	99.8¢	1.122	Feb 9
Will Moonshot have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?	BUY	99.9¢	1.631	Feb 9
Will Meituan have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?	BUY	99.9¢	1.331	Feb 9

Odds DistributionFavorite / High-Confidence

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing34.7

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.91

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)31.6%

Win Consistency55.7%

Profit Factor0.90

Drawdown Resilience0.73

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.73

Weekly Sharpe est.0.56

Trading Activity99 trades · 6 active days

P&L Calendar

+$27,2924d profit2d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue