RollTheDiceX

0x4ea04f...11cd32

Smart Score

Win Rate

24.1%

Total P&L

+$62

Trade Count

141

Sharpe Ratio

0.65

Sortino Ratio

55.91

Max Drawdown

181.8%

ROI

8.1%

Profit Factor

1.32

Kelly Fraction

0.058

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

023/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	SELL	27.0¢	41.79	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	SELL	40.7¢	12.49	Mar 5
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	BUY	45.0¢	11.111	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	6.0¢	83.333	Mar 4
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 6, 2026?	BUY	1.4¢	71.429	Mar 4
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026?	BUY	0.4¢	250	Mar 4
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	BUY	15.0¢	33.333	Mar 4
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY	39.0¢	12.821	Mar 4
Will Reza Pahlavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	0.4¢	275	Mar 3
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	SELL	85.7¢	47.88	Mar 3
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	SELL	0.6¢	25	Mar 3
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	SELL	76.1¢	11.96	Mar 3
Will Reza Pahlavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	SELL	0.1¢	1,426.45	Mar 3
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	SELL	0.1¢	500	Mar 3
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	SELL	0.1¢	337.41	Mar 3
Will Mohammad-Reza Modarresi Yazdi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	SELL	0.1¢	252.5	Mar 3
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	SELL	0.5¢	49.18	Mar 3
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 4?	BUY	4.5¢	112.222	Mar 3
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	8.4¢	59.84	Mar 3
Will Reza Pahlavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	1.3¢	383.333	Mar 3

Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing23

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.27

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)20.9%

Win Consistency31.3%

Profit Factor0.60

Drawdown Resilience0.48

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.48

Weekly Sharpe est.0.37

Trading Activity141 trades · 19 active days

P&L Calendar

$617d profit12d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue