shameonu-pol-ymarket

0x1773dc...91f4e3

Smart Score

Win Rate

41.0%

Total P&L

-$10.7K

Trade Count

467

Sharpe Ratio

-0.14

Sortino Ratio

-0.92

Max Drawdown

455.6%

ROI

-18.3%

Profit Factor

0.51

Kelly Fraction

0.000

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

06.9/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY	60.0¢	33.333	Mar 1
Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026?	BUY	48.6¢	20	Jan 13
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	BUY	16.0¢	620	Jan 11
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	SELL	37.0¢	314.11	Dec 3
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	SELL	37.0¢	13.514	Dec 2
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	SELL	37.0¢	22.162	Dec 2
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	SELL	37.0¢	31.71	Dec 2
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	SELL	37.0¢	30	Dec 2
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	SELL	37.0¢	88.326	Nov 29
Will Mohammed bin Salman wear a suit and tie by Thursday?	BUY	3.5¢	119.04	Nov 19
Will Mohammed bin Salman wear a suit and tie by Thursday?	BUY	3.5¢	200	Nov 19
Will Mohammed bin Salman wear a suit and tie by Thursday?	BUY	3.5¢	51.813	Nov 19
Will Mohammed bin Salman wear a suit and tie by Thursday?	BUY	3.5¢	26.943	Nov 19
Will Mohammed bin Salman wear a suit and tie by Thursday?	BUY	3.5¢	5	Nov 19
Will Mohammed bin Salman wear a suit and tie by Thursday?	BUY	3.5¢	1.036	Nov 19
Will Mohammed bin Salman wear a suit and tie by Thursday?	BUY	3.5¢	50.7	Nov 19
Will Mohammed bin Salman wear a suit and tie by Thursday?	BUY	3.5¢	45.45	Nov 19
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?	SELL	6.0¢	782.36	Nov 17
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?	BUY	10.0¢	1,061.11	Nov 17
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?	BUY	10.0¢	9.09	Nov 17

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing6.9

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)0.38

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)6.3%

Win Consistency46.5%

Profit Factor0.18

Drawdown Resilience0.14

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.14

Weekly Sharpe est.0.11

Trading Activity467 trades · 57 active days

P&L Calendar

$36,88813d profit44d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue