Tarakona

0x6d23f9...d368fb

Smart Score

Win Rate

71.0%

Total P&L

+$858

Trade Count

125

Sharpe Ratio

0.38

Sortino Ratio

0.91

Max Drawdown

150.0%

ROI

7.5%

Profit Factor

7.91

Kelly Fraction

0.620

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

038.1/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	SELL	96.2¢	400	Mar 5
Internet Access restored in Iran by March 14, 2026?	BUY	95.0¢	100	Mar 5
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7?	SELL	88.0¢	16.5	Mar 5
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	BUY	56.0¢	10	Mar 5
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	BUY	38.0¢	100	Mar 5
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7?	BUY	88.0¢	100	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	SELL	38.0¢	200	Mar 5
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	BUY	39.0¢	73.69	Mar 5
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	BUY	39.0¢	26.31	Mar 5
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	BUY	86.0¢	115	Mar 4
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th?	BUY	97.4¢	3.92	Mar 4
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th?	BUY	97.4¢	100	Mar 4
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th?	BUY	97.4¢	196.08	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	33.0¢	200	Mar 4
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	SELL	99.4¢	102	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	BUY	92.7¢	22	Feb 28
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?	SELL	99.8¢	18.88	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	BUY	93.6¢	80	Feb 28
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?	BUY	99.7¢	300	Feb 27
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?	BUY	99.8¢	214.12	Feb 27

Odds DistributionFavorite / High-Confidence

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing38.1

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)2.10

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)34.7%

Win Consistency62.9%

Profit Factor0.99

Drawdown Resilience0.80

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.80

Weekly Sharpe est.0.61

Trading Activity125 trades · 26 active days

P&L Calendar

$1,43111d profit15d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue