theaaaron

0x1183dd...3ac3aa

Smart Score

Win Rate

56.3%

Total P&L

+$63

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

0.01

Sortino Ratio

0.01

Max Drawdown

1168.6%

ROI

1.8%

Profit Factor

1.46

Kelly Fraction

0.177

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

014/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	67.7¢	44.313	Mar 5
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	BUY	97.1¢	51.514	Mar 3
Will Hassan Rouhani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	97.1¢	51.481	Mar 3
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	BUY	92.0¢	198.674	Mar 2
Fabric FDV above $100M one day after launch?	BUY	71.0¢	12.4	Feb 6
Fabric FDV above $100M one day after launch?	BUY	71.0¢	80	Feb 6
Fabric FDV above $100M one day after launch?	BUY	71.0¢	7.6	Feb 6
Fabric FDV above $100M one day after launch?	BUY	72.0¢	15.87	Feb 6
Fabric FDV above $100M one day after launch?	BUY	71.0¢	35	Feb 6
Fabric FDV above $100M one day after launch?	BUY	70.0¢	10	Feb 6
Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026?	BUY	34.0¢	110	Feb 6
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?	BUY	99.5¢	300	Feb 5
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?	BUY	83.0¢	233.55	Feb 3
Tria FDV above $50M one day after launch?	SELL	97.0¢	210	Feb 3
Tria FDV above $50M one day after launch?	SELL	97.0¢	15	Feb 3
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	BUY	49.0¢	20	Feb 2
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	BUY	18.0¢	20	Feb 2
Tria FDV above $50M one day after launch?	BUY	91.1¢	225	Feb 2
Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch?	SELL	97.2¢	542.05	Feb 2
Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch?	BUY	92.0¢	542.054	Feb 1

Odds DistributionFavorite / High-Confidence

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing14

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)0.77

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)12.7%

Win Consistency56.3%

Profit Factor0.36

Drawdown Resilience0.29

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.29

Weekly Sharpe est.0.22

Trading Activity25 trades · 13 active days

P&L Calendar

$2,0063d profit10d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue