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TheOutcome

TheOutcome

0x4113dd...d79514@TheOutcomexx
Smart Score
8
Win Rate
67.9%
Total P&L
-$12.9K
Trade Count
1,510
Sharpe Ratio
0.15
Sortino Ratio
20.54
Max Drawdown
26053.5%
ROI
-10.7%
Profit Factor
0.42
Kelly Fraction
0.000
R² (Curve Fit)
—
Smart Score
08/100100

Recent Trades

MarketSidePriceSizeTime
Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31?SELL6.0¢400Mar 5
Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31?SELL6.0¢200Mar 3
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ETBUY86.9¢14.148Feb 18
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 31?SELL10.3¢120.66Feb 18
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ETBUY99.0¢1.141Feb 18
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ETBUY99.0¢1.121Feb 18
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ETBUY97.0¢1.113Feb 18
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ETBUY99.0¢1.081Feb 18
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 31?SELL10.0¢10Feb 18
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ETBUY14.6¢46.5Feb 17
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ETSELL73.0¢9.39Feb 17
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ETBUY58.0¢9.534Feb 17
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ETSELL99.0¢5.59Feb 17
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ETBUY94.0¢5.596Feb 17
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ETBUY3.0¢15Feb 17
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ETBUY3.0¢15Feb 17
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ETBUY3.0¢4.546Feb 17
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ETBUY3.0¢10.45Feb 17
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ETBUY3.0¢15Feb 17
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ETBUY3.0¢15Feb 17

Analytics

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Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

100%75%50%25%9%< 10%6%10–20%4%20–30%14%30–50%13%50–70%5%70–80%11%80–90%38%> 90%
← Long ShotsSafe Bets →
Quantitative Edge Profile
Developing8

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)0.44
Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)7.3%
Win Consistency22.2%
Profit Factor0.21
Drawdown Resilience0.17
Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.17
Weekly Sharpe est.0.13
Trading Activity1,510 trades · 86 active days
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLessMore
P&L Calendar
$32,57211d profit69d loss
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLossProfit

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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