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thisissomethingthatidontwantinmylife

0x605bf1...e9df31
Smart Score
40
Win Rate
27.5%
Total P&L
-$682
Trade Count
265
Sharpe Ratio
0.42
Sortino Ratio
6.95
Max Drawdown
75.2%
ROI
-7.0%
Profit Factor
0.70
Kelly Fraction
0.000
R² (Curve Fit)
—
Smart Score
039.7/100100

Recent Trades

MarketSidePriceSizeTime
US forces enter Iran by March 31?SELL78.0¢769.23Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?SELL77.5¢1,176.47Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 31?BUY26.0¢769.231Mar 3
US forces enter Iran by March 14?BUY17.0¢1,176.471Mar 3
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?BUY76.4¢130.841Mar 3
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?SELL98.1¢113.63Mar 3
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?BUY79.9¢125.156Mar 3
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?SELL95.5¢120.23Mar 1
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?SELL36.5¢261.12Mar 1
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?BUY83.2¢120.237Mar 1
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?BUY88.0¢113.636Mar 1
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?BUY38.3¢261.122Mar 1
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?SELL64.4¢434.78Mar 1
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?SELL30.9¢997.99Mar 1
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?BUY35.9¢278.552Feb 28
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?BUY46.0¢434.783Feb 28
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?SELL1.0¢280.79Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?SELL73.0¢2,186.62Feb 28
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?BUY17.0¢235.294Feb 28
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?BUY16.0¢45.5Feb 28

Analytics

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Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

100%75%50%25%50%< 10%14%10–20%12%20–30%13%30–50%9%50–70%70–80%80–90%> 90%
← Long ShotsSafe Bets →
Quantitative Edge Profile
Developing39.7

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)2.18
Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)36.1%
Win Consistency43.9%
Profit Factor1.03
Drawdown Resilience0.83
Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.83
Weekly Sharpe est.0.64
Trading Activity265 trades · 23 active days
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P&L Calendar
$1,0893d profit20d loss
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLossProfit

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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