tjiqqqu

0x4e2d44...e76507@AgudelHolmer

Smart Score

Win Rate

46.4%

Total P&L

+$195

Trade Count

106

Sharpe Ratio

0.26

Sortino Ratio

12.73

Max Drawdown

10914.6%

ROI

6.3%

Profit Factor

55.04

Kelly Fraction

0.456

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

045.8/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	SELL	94.2¢	126.17	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	79.9¢	126.17	Mar 5
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	SELL	83.7¢	120.43	Mar 5
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	BUY	84.0¢	120.429	Mar 4
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?	SELL	87.0¢	116.27	Mar 4
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?	BUY	68.0¢	116.279	Mar 3
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	SELL	82.1¢	96.31	Mar 3
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	BUY	83.5¢	96.318	Mar 3
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	SELL	70.0¢	114.85	Mar 3
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	BUY	71.0¢	47.17	Mar 3
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	BUY	71.0¢	67.68	Mar 3
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?	SELL	22.0¢	370.65	Mar 3
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?	BUY	20.0¢	318.78	Mar 2
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?	BUY	20.0¢	51.875	Mar 2
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?	SELL	78.0¢	95.04	Mar 2
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?	BUY	63.0¢	95.048	Feb 27
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	SELL	80.0¢	74.85	Feb 27
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	BUY	84.0¢	74.85	Feb 26
Will JD Vance clap between 70–79 times during the State of the Union?	SELL	0.6¢	259.21	Feb 25
Will Binance be accused of insider trading?	BUY	96.8¢	211.32	Feb 25

Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing45.8

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)2.52

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)41.7%

Win Consistency50.0%

Profit Factor1.19

Drawdown Resilience0.96

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.96

Weekly Sharpe est.0.73

Trading Activity61 trades · 11 active days

P&L Calendar

$84d profit3d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue