tomtoldme

0x7905bc...32a886@tomtoldme

Smart Score

Win Rate

21.0%

Total P&L

+$183

Trade Count

285

Sharpe Ratio

-1.43

Sortino Ratio

-3.73

Max Drawdown

16009.6%

ROI

0.6%

Profit Factor

1.05

Kelly Fraction

0.010

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

00.7/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will Bill Clinton say "Plane" during his Epstein testimony?	SELL	0.2¢	115.02	Mar 5
Will Bill Clinton say "Hillary" during his Epstein testimony?	SELL	0.3¢	173.19	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	44.1¢	680.375	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	44.0¢	1,136.393	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	SELL	45.9¢	3,337.31	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	SELL	39.2¢	3,347.2	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	61.7¢	2,238.93	Mar 4
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	SELL	16.1¢	8,584.43	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	BUY	67.6¢	2,364.323	Mar 4
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	SELL	50.0¢	3,194.84	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	BUY	49.5¢	729.947	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	SELL	7.8¢	4,649.73	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	BUY	18.0¢	374.333	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	BUY	14.0¢	478.214	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	26.0¢	782.269	Mar 3
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	26.0¢	384.615	Mar 3
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	BUY	17.0¢	588.235	Mar 3
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	9.0¢	666.667	Mar 3
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	26.0¢	769.231	Mar 3
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	26.0¢	769.231	Mar 3

Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

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Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing0.7

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)0.04

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)0.6%

Win Consistency25.6%

Profit Factor0.02

Drawdown Resilience0.01

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.01

Weekly Sharpe est.0.01

Trading Activity285 trades · 21 active days

P&L Calendar

$5,8041d profit20d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue