triple-purple

0x038bca...4bafc4

Smart Score

Win Rate

29.2%

Total P&L

+$2.3K

Trade Count

3,226

Sharpe Ratio

0.23

Sortino Ratio

5.27

Max Drawdown

7318.0%

ROI

1.0%

Profit Factor

1.23

Kelly Fraction

0.054

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

023/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?	BUY	34.6¢	1,156.424	Mar 5
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?	SELL	89.9¢	1,015.21	Mar 4
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?	BUY	31.9¢	1,015.211	Mar 3
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?	SELL	78.9¢	782.94	Mar 3
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?	BUY	5.6¢	900.253	Mar 3
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?	BUY	31.9¢	782.948	Mar 2
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?	SELL	96.0¢	133.72	Mar 2
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?	SELL	96.0¢	180	Mar 2
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?	BUY	51.0¢	313.725	Mar 1
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	SELL	2.9¢	504.77	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	BUY	10.5¢	504.762	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	SELL	6.4¢	1,364.69	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	BUY	5.9¢	847.458	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	BUY	5.8¢	517.241	Feb 28
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	SELL	84.0¢	228.91	Feb 28
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	BUY	83.0¢	228.916	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	SELL	27.0¢	320	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	BUY	25.0¢	320	Feb 28
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 50% in February?	SELL	66.6¢	487.66	Feb 28
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 50% in February?	SELL	66.6¢	94.595	Feb 28

Analytics

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Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

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Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing23

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.27

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)20.9%

Win Consistency41.9%

Profit Factor0.60

Drawdown Resilience0.48

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.48

Weekly Sharpe est.0.37

Trading Activity3,226 trades · 223 active days

P&L Calendar

$22586d profit109d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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