understatement

0x6d55ca...4504b8

Smart Score

Win Rate

76.5%

Total P&L

+$646

Trade Count

144

Sharpe Ratio

-1.70

Sortino Ratio

-1.50

Max Drawdown

1737.9%

ROI

4.0%

Profit Factor

2.12

Kelly Fraction

0.404

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

016.9/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	SELL	30.4¢	880.79	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	SELL	40.1¢	339.85	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	SELL	70.9¢	627.68	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	SELL	78.0¢	1,025.64	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	68.2¢	73.333	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	55.0¢	90.925	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	BUY	66.2¢	453.047	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	BUY	49.2¢	98.63	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	BUY	27.8¢	179.934	Mar 4
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 2, 2026?	SELL	99.9¢	50	Mar 4
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	SELL	39.7¢	32.15	Mar 4
Will Sanna Nielsen win Melodifestivalen 2026?	SELL	99.4¢	53.19	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	BUY	63.7¢	627.688	Mar 4
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	SELL	98.6¢	51.86	Mar 4
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?	SELL	90.0¢	41.09	Mar 4
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 4, 2026?	SELL	99.1¢	42.25	Mar 4
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 3, 2026?	SELL	99.6¢	38.46	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	12.6¢	158.551	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	39.0¢	512.821	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	39.0¢	512.821	Mar 4

Odds DistributionFavorite / High-Confidence

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing16.9

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)0.93

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)15.4%

Win Consistency51.5%

Profit Factor0.44

Drawdown Resilience0.35

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.35

Weekly Sharpe est.0.27

Trading Activity144 trades · 16 active days

P&L Calendar

$5,9074d profit12d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue