Von-Vrangel

0x181a97...2ab90f

Smart Score

Win Rate

53.1%

Total P&L

-$273

Trade Count

712

Sharpe Ratio

0.25

Sortino Ratio

10.26

Max Drawdown

205.1%

ROI

-4.9%

Profit Factor

0.52

Kelly Fraction

0.000

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

024/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will another country strike Iran by March 7?	SELL	74.0¢	4.76	Mar 5
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	40.0¢	5	Mar 5
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	40.0¢	3.025	Mar 5
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 6, 2026?	SELL	7.0¢	8.33	Mar 5
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	SELL	14.0¢	22.31	Mar 5
US strikes Iraq by March 7?	BUY	40.0¢	3.75	Mar 5
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15?	BUY	28.0¢	7.143	Mar 5
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?	BUY	39.0¢	5.128	Mar 4
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	42.0¢	7.143	Mar 4
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	41.0¢	9.756	Mar 4
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	BUY	18.0¢	11.111	Mar 4
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	BUY	15.0¢	11.2	Mar 4
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 6, 2026?	BUY	24.0¢	8.333	Mar 4
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 5, 2026?	BUY	18.0¢	11.111	Mar 4
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	BUY	61.0¢	4.443	Mar 4
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	BUY	78.0¢	1.923	Mar 4
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay	BUY	76.0¢	2.118	Mar 4
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?	BUY	76.0¢	2.434	Mar 4
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	BUY	71.0¢	3.014	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	BUY	50.0¢	4.2	Mar 4

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing24

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.32

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)21.8%

Win Consistency48.3%

Profit Factor0.62

Drawdown Resilience0.50

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.50

Weekly Sharpe est.0.38

Trading Activity712 trades · 37 active days

P&L Calendar

$9994d profit31d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue