weaf

0x24d5b8...b0fb4f@ChrisKerstens

Smart Score

Win Rate

98.4%

Total P&L

+$6

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

-0.19

Sortino Ratio

-0.13

Max Drawdown

299.5%

ROI

0.2%

Profit Factor

6.68

Kelly Fraction

0.837

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

035/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?	BUY	99.9¢	93.093	Mar 5
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?	BUY	99.9¢	92.092	Mar 2
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on February 14?	BUY	99.9¢	92.092	Feb 14
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on February 4?	BUY	99.9¢	92.092	Feb 3
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in January?	BUY	99.9¢	92.092	Jan 31
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 30?	BUY	99.9¢	92.092	Jan 29
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 19?	BUY	99.9¢	92.092	Jan 19
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on January 17?	BUY	99.9¢	92.092	Jan 17
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 15?	BUY	99.9¢	92.092	Jan 15
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 11?	BUY	99.9¢	92.092	Jan 10
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on January 6?	BUY	99.9¢	92.092	Jan 5
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 3?	BUY	99.9¢	92.092	Jan 2
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $80,000 on December 28?	BUY	99.9¢	91.091	Dec 27
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on December 22?	BUY	99.9¢	91.091	Dec 22
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 15?	BUY	99.9¢	91.851	Dec 14
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,300 and $3,400 on December 7?	BUY	99.9¢	91.761	Dec 7
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 1?	BUY	99.8¢	91.668	Dec 1
Will Elon Musk post 720-759 tweets in November 2025?	BUY	99.9¢	91.491	Nov 26
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on November 18?	BUY	99.9¢	91.391	Nov 18
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?	BUY	99.9¢	91.301	Nov 10

Analytics

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Odds DistributionFavorite / High-Confidence

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

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Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing35

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.92

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)31.9%

Win Consistency57.1%

Profit Factor0.91

Drawdown Resilience0.73

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.73

Weekly Sharpe est.0.56

Trading Activity53 trades · 42 active days

P&L Calendar

$2,6310d profit42d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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