welcometohell

0x4c8b4f...951614

Smart Score

Win Rate

58.6%

Total P&L

-$2.4K

Trade Count

3,986

Sharpe Ratio

-0.32

Sortino Ratio

-4.69

Max Drawdown

2614.5%

ROI

-2.9%

Profit Factor

0.90

Kelly Fraction

0.000

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

01.6/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	25.0¢	24.2	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	25.0¢	375.8	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	SELL	62.0¢	23.8	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	33.7¢	23.8	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	SELL	52.0¢	28.33	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	SELL	52.0¢	2.916	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	20.0¢	31.25	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	BUY	72.0¢	105.3	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	BUY	72.0¢	3.571	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	BUY	72.0¢	30	Mar 4
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	BUY	2.2¢	70.42	Mar 4
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	BUY	20.0¢	31.25	Mar 4
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?	BUY	18.9¢	32.25	Mar 4
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?	BUY	1.6¢	73.52	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Iraq in March?	BUY	1.0¢	74.62	Mar 4
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	BUY	11.0¢	43.47	Mar 4
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	BUY	18.5¢	32.25	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Dimona by March 31?	BUY	13.0¢	40	Mar 4
Will the Democrats win the Virginia Senate race in 2026?	BUY	9.0¢	47.61	Mar 4
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?	BUY	31.0¢	23.25	Mar 4

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing1.6

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)0.09

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)1.5%

Win Consistency9.9%

Profit Factor0.04

Drawdown Resilience0.03

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.03

Weekly Sharpe est.0.03

Trading Activity3,986 trades · 35 active days

P&L Calendar

$48,3114d profit31d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue