williamjohnson

0x44d04c...6e3e39

Smart Score

Win Rate

81.3%

Total P&L

+$376

Trade Count

110

Sharpe Ratio

-0.14

Sortino Ratio

-0.13

Max Drawdown

412.7%

ROI

4.5%

Profit Factor

19.44

Kelly Fraction

0.771

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

035.4/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?	BUY	99.7¢	120.501	Mar 5
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?	BUY	99.7¢	26.62	Feb 28
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?	BUY	99.9¢	149.209	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	BUY	97.4¢	17.556	Feb 23
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?	BUY	99.9¢	179.669	Feb 22
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?	BUY	97.7¢	198.587	Feb 20
US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?	BUY	99.5¢	78.965	Feb 15
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?	BUY	99.8¢	103.798	Feb 12
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January?	BUY	99.9¢	134.504	Jan 30
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	BUY	99.2¢	31.462	Jan 25
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	BUY	97.8¢	37.761	Jan 20
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	BUY	95.2¢	48.13	Jan 15
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	BUY	99.7¢	67.011	Dec 29
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	BUY	99.0¢	34.737	Dec 27
Trump out as President in 2025?	BUY	99.7¢	139.428	Dec 22
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 23?	BUY	98.8¢	118.522	Dec 22
Will the ECB announce no change at the December meeting?	BUY	99.9¢	117.037	Dec 15
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?	BUY	96.7¢	59.266	Dec 9
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	BUY	99.4¢	162.495	Dec 7
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?	BUY	76.0¢	189.592	Nov 20

Analytics

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Odds DistributionFavorite / High-Confidence

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

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Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing35.4

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.95

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)32.2%

Win Consistency69.8%

Profit Factor0.92

Drawdown Resilience0.74

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.74

Weekly Sharpe est.0.57

Trading Activity83 trades · 68 active days

P&L Calendar

$3,21514d profit54d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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